How to Calculate Your Expected Prediction Profit
Most people approach prediction markets the same way they approach a coin flip: pick a side and hope for the best. But there's a more powerful approach — one that separates consistent traders from lucky guessers. It's called expected value, and once you understand it, you'll see every prediction market differently.
This guide breaks down the expected profit formula in plain language, with real examples you can apply immediately.
What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 this week? Will a certain team win the championship? Will a country's central bank raise interest rates?
You take a position — Yes or No — and if you're correct when the event resolves, you profit. If you're wrong, you lose your stake. Unlike sports betting, prediction markets are priced by the crowd, meaning the odds reflect the collective belief of all participants at any given moment.
That collective belief is often wrong. And that's the opportunity.
What Is Expected Profit?
Expected profit (also called expected value, or EV) is the average outcome you'd get if you made the same type of bet many times over. It answers the question: Is this a good bet in the long run?
A single bet can go either way due to randomness. But if you consistently make bets with positive expected value, you will profit over time. This is the same principle used by professional poker players, quantitative traders, and insurance companies.
The goal isn't to win every trade. The goal is to make bets where the math is in your favor.
The Expected Profit Formula
Here's the core formula:
Expected Profit = (Probability of Winning × Profit if Right) − (Probability of Losing × Stake at Risk)
Or in compact form:
EV = (P_win × Reward) − (P_lose × Risk)
That's it. Two outcomes, each weighted by how likely they are. Let's make it concrete.
A Step-by-Step Example
Say there's a prediction market on Everything asking:
"Will ETH trade above $4,000 by August 1?"
The "Yes" position is priced at $0.60 per share. That means:
If you're right, each share pays out $1.00 — a $0.40 profit
If you're wrong, you lose your $0.60 stake
After doing your research, you believe there's a 70% chance ETH breaks $4,000 by that date. Let's run the formula:
P_win = 0.70
P_lose = 0.30
Reward per share = $0.40
Risk per share = $0.60
EV = (0.70 × $0.40) − (0.30 × $0.60)
EV = $0.28 − $0.18
EV = +$0.10 per share
Positive EV. For every share you buy, you expect to earn $0.10 on average. The bet is mathematically worth making.
What Happens When EV Is Negative?
Now let's say your view changes. You reassess the data and now think there's only a 40% chance ETH hits $4,000 — but the market still prices Yes at $0.60.
EV = (0.40 × $0.40) − (0.60 × $0.60)
EV = $0.16 − $0.36
EV = −$0.20 per share
Negative EV. Even if you "feel" like ETH will run, this bet loses money on average. The smart move is to skip it — or take the other side if you have conviction your estimate is right.
This is the discipline that separates profitable prediction traders from everyone else.
The Most Important Variable: Your Probability Estimate
Notice that the formula depends entirely on your probability estimate — not the market's. The market price implies a probability, but it's the crowd's average view. The crowd is often wrong.
When the market prices Yes at $0.60, it's implying roughly 60% probability. If you believe the real probability is 70%, you have an edge of 10 percentage points. That edge, over many trades, generates consistent profit.
This is called finding mispriced probabilities — when the market's implied probability is meaningfully different from your estimated probability. It's the foundation of all intelligent prediction market trading.
How to Form a Probability Estimate
You don't need a PhD in statistics. Here are practical approaches anyone can use:
1. Start with Base Rates
How often has this type of event happened historically? If a sports team wins 65% of home games, that's your starting point for a home game prediction. If a particular coin has broken $X in 8 of the last 12 comparable conditions, that's a base rate of 67%.
2. Adjust for New Information
Base rates are starting points. Update them when you have relevant new data — a key player injury, a surprise earnings report, an unexpected policy announcement, a significant on-chain movement. The more specific your insight, and the less widely known it is, the more valuable it is.
3. Check What Other Markets Imply
Are other exchanges or prediction platforms pricing the same event differently? Discrepancies between platforms often signal opportunity. If one market prices Yes at 55% and another at 65%, someone is wrong — and you can position accordingly.
4. Apply Bayesian Thinking
Start with your base rate. Receive new information. Update your estimate. This process — starting with a prior and revising as evidence arrives — is called Bayesian updating. It's how the sharpest analysts in the world think about probability.
5. Calibrate Over Time
Keep a log of your predictions. Record what probability you assigned and whether the event happened. Over hundreds of predictions, you'll learn whether you're consistently overconfident (you assign 80% to things that happen 60% of the time) or underconfident (you're too cautious). Knowing your calibration biases lets you correct for them.
The Full Formula (With Fees)
In a real trading environment, fees matter. The complete formula is:
Net EV = (P_win × Reward) − (P_lose × Risk) − Fees
On Everything, fees are displayed transparently before you confirm any trade. Always check them. If your expected profit is $0.05 per share but the fee is $0.06, the trade is a loss in expectation — even if your probability estimate is correct.
This is why professional traders compare EV after fees, not before.
Scaling Your Positions
Once you've identified a positive EV trade, the next question is: how much to stake?
A common framework is the Kelly Criterion, which tells you what fraction of your bankroll to bet based on your edge. The formula is:
Kelly % = (P_win × Reward − P_lose × Risk) / Reward
In practice, many traders use a fraction of the full Kelly amount (half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly) to reduce variance and protect their bankroll during losing streaks. The math says bet more when your edge is larger — but practical traders stay conservative to survive long enough for the edge to play out.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Confusing "I think it'll happen" with positive EV
You can believe something will happen and still have negative EV if the market is already pricing it correctly. The question is never just "will it happen?" — it's "is this price wrong?"
Ignoring the other side
If you think the Yes probability is 40% but the market prices it at 60%, don't buy Yes. But consider whether No at $0.40 is a positive EV trade (it often is in this case).
Overtrading
More trades aren't better. More positive EV trades are better. When you don't see a clear edge, the correct position is flat.
Letting outcomes affect your system
A positive EV trade that loses is still a good trade. A negative EV trade that wins is still a bad trade. Judge your decisions by the process, not the outcome. Over time, the process is what determines results.
Putting It All Together: A Decision Framework
Before every prediction market trade, run through this checklist:
What does the market imply? Convert the price to an implied probability (a $0.65 Yes = ~65% implied probability)
What do I estimate? Based on research, base rates, and current information, what do I think the real probability is?
Is there a gap? If your estimate is meaningfully higher or lower than implied, you may have an edge
What's the EV? Run the formula. Is it positive after fees?
How much should I stake? Size based on your edge and risk tolerance — not emotion
Execute — or skip If EV is positive, enter. If not, wait for the next opportunity
This process takes five minutes to run through. Over time, it becomes second nature.
Why This Matters on Everything
Everything's prediction markets cover crypto prices, financial events, and global outcomes — live, with real stakes, and real payouts. The same EV math applies whether you're predicting a Bitcoin price target, the outcome of a major geopolitical event, or the next interest rate decision.
The platform gives you the tools. The formula gives you the edge. And the discipline to apply it consistently is what turns occasional wins into a repeatable strategy.
Start small. Track your predictions. Refine your estimates. And over time, let the math do the work.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the difference between expected profit and expected value?
They're the same concept. Expected value (EV) is the standard term in mathematics and trading. Expected profit is simply the practical version — the average money you expect to gain or lose per trade, taking into account all possible outcomes and their probabilities.
Do I need to be good at math to use this?
No. The formula involves only multiplication and subtraction. Once you've estimated the probability and know the payout, the calculation takes seconds. Over time, experienced traders develop an intuition for EV without running the full formula each time.
What if I don't know the probability?
That's your signal to do more research — or skip the trade. Trading without a probability estimate is speculation. Trading with a well-reasoned estimate is what turns prediction markets into an analytical edge.
How is prediction market trading different from gambling?
In gambling, the house edge is fixed and you cannot outperform it over time. In prediction markets, the "price" is set by other traders — and if you have better information or better analysis than the crowd, you have a genuine, sustainable edge. That's the fundamental difference.
Can I apply this to crypto perps trading too?
Expected value thinking applies to any form of trading. In perps, you estimate directional probability, set your risk/reward, and evaluate whether the trade has positive EV. The math is the same. The assets and markets are different.
What's a reasonable win rate for a positive EV trader?
It depends on the payout structure. In binary prediction markets with even payouts, a 55–60% win rate on well-researched positions is very respectable. In markets with asymmetric payouts, you can be profitable with lower win rates if your winners pay significantly more than your losers cost.
Double Your Profits — Limited Time Offer Until July 20
Part of our Double Rewards promotion — running until July 20.
If there was ever a moment to put your expected value skills to work, this is it.
Everything is running a Double Rewards promotion until July 20. That means every winning prediction market trade earns you 2× the standard rewards — on top of your regular profit.
Think about what that does to your expected value calculation. If a trade already has positive EV, doubling the reward payout only makes it more attractive. This is one of those rare windows where the math gets even better.
Offer valid until July 20
Applies to all prediction market trades on Everything
Stack it with your EV edge for maximum returns
Now's the time. Open Everything, find a mispriced prediction, and let the math do the work.
Ready to start applying expected value thinking to real trades?
Most people approach prediction markets the same way they approach a coin flip: pick a side and hope for the best. But there's a more powerful approach — one that separates consistent traders from lucky guessers. It's called expected value, and once you understand it, you'll see every prediction market differently.
This guide breaks down the expected profit formula in plain language, with real examples you can apply immediately.
What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 this week? Will a certain team win the championship? Will a country's central bank raise interest rates?
You take a position — Yes or No — and if you're correct when the event resolves, you profit. If you're wrong, you lose your stake. Unlike sports betting, prediction markets are priced by the crowd, meaning the odds reflect the collective belief of all participants at any given moment.
That collective belief is often wrong. And that's the opportunity.
What Is Expected Profit?
Expected profit (also called expected value, or EV) is the average outcome you'd get if you made the same type of bet many times over. It answers the question: Is this a good bet in the long run?
A single bet can go either way due to randomness. But if you consistently make bets with positive expected value, you will profit over time. This is the same principle used by professional poker players, quantitative traders, and insurance companies.
The goal isn't to win every trade. The goal is to make bets where the math is in your favor.
The Expected Profit Formula
Here's the core formula:
Expected Profit = (Probability of Winning × Profit if Right) − (Probability of Losing × Stake at Risk)
Or in compact form:
EV = (P_win × Reward) − (P_lose × Risk)
That's it. Two outcomes, each weighted by how likely they are. Let's make it concrete.
A Step-by-Step Example
Say there's a prediction market on Everything asking:
"Will ETH trade above $4,000 by August 1?"
The "Yes" position is priced at $0.60 per share. That means:
If you're right, each share pays out $1.00 — a $0.40 profit
If you're wrong, you lose your $0.60 stake
After doing your research, you believe there's a 70% chance ETH breaks $4,000 by that date. Let's run the formula:
P_win = 0.70
P_lose = 0.30
Reward per share = $0.40
Risk per share = $0.60
EV = (0.70 × $0.40) − (0.30 × $0.60)
EV = $0.28 − $0.18
EV = +$0.10 per share
Positive EV. For every share you buy, you expect to earn $0.10 on average. The bet is mathematically worth making.
What Happens When EV Is Negative?
Now let's say your view changes. You reassess the data and now think there's only a 40% chance ETH hits $4,000 — but the market still prices Yes at $0.60.
EV = (0.40 × $0.40) − (0.60 × $0.60)
EV = $0.16 − $0.36
EV = −$0.20 per share
Negative EV. Even if you "feel" like ETH will run, this bet loses money on average. The smart move is to skip it — or take the other side if you have conviction your estimate is right.
This is the discipline that separates profitable prediction traders from everyone else.
The Most Important Variable: Your Probability Estimate
Notice that the formula depends entirely on your probability estimate — not the market's. The market price implies a probability, but it's the crowd's average view. The crowd is often wrong.
When the market prices Yes at $0.60, it's implying roughly 60% probability. If you believe the real probability is 70%, you have an edge of 10 percentage points. That edge, over many trades, generates consistent profit.
This is called finding mispriced probabilities — when the market's implied probability is meaningfully different from your estimated probability. It's the foundation of all intelligent prediction market trading.
How to Form a Probability Estimate
You don't need a PhD in statistics. Here are practical approaches anyone can use:
1. Start with Base Rates
How often has this type of event happened historically? If a sports team wins 65% of home games, that's your starting point for a home game prediction. If a particular coin has broken $X in 8 of the last 12 comparable conditions, that's a base rate of 67%.
2. Adjust for New Information
Base rates are starting points. Update them when you have relevant new data — a key player injury, a surprise earnings report, an unexpected policy announcement, a significant on-chain movement. The more specific your insight, and the less widely known it is, the more valuable it is.
3. Check What Other Markets Imply
Are other exchanges or prediction platforms pricing the same event differently? Discrepancies between platforms often signal opportunity. If one market prices Yes at 55% and another at 65%, someone is wrong — and you can position accordingly.
4. Apply Bayesian Thinking
Start with your base rate. Receive new information. Update your estimate. This process — starting with a prior and revising as evidence arrives — is called Bayesian updating. It's how the sharpest analysts in the world think about probability.
5. Calibrate Over Time
Keep a log of your predictions. Record what probability you assigned and whether the event happened. Over hundreds of predictions, you'll learn whether you're consistently overconfident (you assign 80% to things that happen 60% of the time) or underconfident (you're too cautious). Knowing your calibration biases lets you correct for them.
The Full Formula (With Fees)
In a real trading environment, fees matter. The complete formula is:
Net EV = (P_win × Reward) − (P_lose × Risk) − Fees
On Everything, fees are displayed transparently before you confirm any trade. Always check them. If your expected profit is $0.05 per share but the fee is $0.06, the trade is a loss in expectation — even if your probability estimate is correct.
This is why professional traders compare EV after fees, not before.
Scaling Your Positions
Once you've identified a positive EV trade, the next question is: how much to stake?
A common framework is the Kelly Criterion, which tells you what fraction of your bankroll to bet based on your edge. The formula is:
Kelly % = (P_win × Reward − P_lose × Risk) / Reward
In practice, many traders use a fraction of the full Kelly amount (half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly) to reduce variance and protect their bankroll during losing streaks. The math says bet more when your edge is larger — but practical traders stay conservative to survive long enough for the edge to play out.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Confusing "I think it'll happen" with positive EV
You can believe something will happen and still have negative EV if the market is already pricing it correctly. The question is never just "will it happen?" — it's "is this price wrong?"
Ignoring the other side
If you think the Yes probability is 40% but the market prices it at 60%, don't buy Yes. But consider whether No at $0.40 is a positive EV trade (it often is in this case).
Overtrading
More trades aren't better. More positive EV trades are better. When you don't see a clear edge, the correct position is flat.
Letting outcomes affect your system
A positive EV trade that loses is still a good trade. A negative EV trade that wins is still a bad trade. Judge your decisions by the process, not the outcome. Over time, the process is what determines results.
Putting It All Together: A Decision Framework
Before every prediction market trade, run through this checklist:
What does the market imply? Convert the price to an implied probability (a $0.65 Yes = ~65% implied probability)
What do I estimate? Based on research, base rates, and current information, what do I think the real probability is?
Is there a gap? If your estimate is meaningfully higher or lower than implied, you may have an edge
What's the EV? Run the formula. Is it positive after fees?
How much should I stake? Size based on your edge and risk tolerance — not emotion
Execute — or skip If EV is positive, enter. If not, wait for the next opportunity
This process takes five minutes to run through. Over time, it becomes second nature.
Why This Matters on Everything
Everything's prediction markets cover crypto prices, financial events, and global outcomes — live, with real stakes, and real payouts. The same EV math applies whether you're predicting a Bitcoin price target, the outcome of a major geopolitical event, or the next interest rate decision.
The platform gives you the tools. The formula gives you the edge. And the discipline to apply it consistently is what turns occasional wins into a repeatable strategy.
Start small. Track your predictions. Refine your estimates. And over time, let the math do the work.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the difference between expected profit and expected value?
They're the same concept. Expected value (EV) is the standard term in mathematics and trading. Expected profit is simply the practical version — the average money you expect to gain or lose per trade, taking into account all possible outcomes and their probabilities.
Do I need to be good at math to use this?
No. The formula involves only multiplication and subtraction. Once you've estimated the probability and know the payout, the calculation takes seconds. Over time, experienced traders develop an intuition for EV without running the full formula each time.
What if I don't know the probability?
That's your signal to do more research — or skip the trade. Trading without a probability estimate is speculation. Trading with a well-reasoned estimate is what turns prediction markets into an analytical edge.
How is prediction market trading different from gambling?
In gambling, the house edge is fixed and you cannot outperform it over time. In prediction markets, the "price" is set by other traders — and if you have better information or better analysis than the crowd, you have a genuine, sustainable edge. That's the fundamental difference.
Can I apply this to crypto perps trading too?
Expected value thinking applies to any form of trading. In perps, you estimate directional probability, set your risk/reward, and evaluate whether the trade has positive EV. The math is the same. The assets and markets are different.
What's a reasonable win rate for a positive EV trader?
It depends on the payout structure. In binary prediction markets with even payouts, a 55–60% win rate on well-researched positions is very respectable. In markets with asymmetric payouts, you can be profitable with lower win rates if your winners pay significantly more than your losers cost.
Double Your Profits — Limited Time Offer Until July 20
Part of our Double Rewards promotion — running until July 20.
If there was ever a moment to put your expected value skills to work, this is it.
Everything is running a Double Rewards promotion until July 20. That means every winning prediction market trade earns you 2× the standard rewards — on top of your regular profit.
Think about what that does to your expected value calculation. If a trade already has positive EV, doubling the reward payout only makes it more attractive. This is one of those rare windows where the math gets even better.
Offer valid until July 20
Applies to all prediction market trades on Everything
Stack it with your EV edge for maximum returns
Now's the time. Open Everything, find a mispriced prediction, and let the math do the work.
Ready to start applying expected value thinking to real trades?
Most people approach prediction markets the same way they approach a coin flip: pick a side and hope for the best. But there's a more powerful approach — one that separates consistent traders from lucky guessers. It's called expected value, and once you understand it, you'll see every prediction market differently.
This guide breaks down the expected profit formula in plain language, with real examples you can apply immediately.
What Is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 this week? Will a certain team win the championship? Will a country's central bank raise interest rates?
You take a position — Yes or No — and if you're correct when the event resolves, you profit. If you're wrong, you lose your stake. Unlike sports betting, prediction markets are priced by the crowd, meaning the odds reflect the collective belief of all participants at any given moment.
That collective belief is often wrong. And that's the opportunity.
What Is Expected Profit?
Expected profit (also called expected value, or EV) is the average outcome you'd get if you made the same type of bet many times over. It answers the question: Is this a good bet in the long run?
A single bet can go either way due to randomness. But if you consistently make bets with positive expected value, you will profit over time. This is the same principle used by professional poker players, quantitative traders, and insurance companies.
The goal isn't to win every trade. The goal is to make bets where the math is in your favor.
The Expected Profit Formula
Here's the core formula:
Expected Profit = (Probability of Winning × Profit if Right) − (Probability of Losing × Stake at Risk)
Or in compact form:
EV = (P_win × Reward) − (P_lose × Risk)
That's it. Two outcomes, each weighted by how likely they are. Let's make it concrete.
A Step-by-Step Example
Say there's a prediction market on Everything asking:
"Will ETH trade above $4,000 by August 1?"
The "Yes" position is priced at $0.60 per share. That means:
If you're right, each share pays out $1.00 — a $0.40 profit
If you're wrong, you lose your $0.60 stake
After doing your research, you believe there's a 70% chance ETH breaks $4,000 by that date. Let's run the formula:
P_win = 0.70
P_lose = 0.30
Reward per share = $0.40
Risk per share = $0.60
EV = (0.70 × $0.40) − (0.30 × $0.60)
EV = $0.28 − $0.18
EV = +$0.10 per share
Positive EV. For every share you buy, you expect to earn $0.10 on average. The bet is mathematically worth making.
What Happens When EV Is Negative?
Now let's say your view changes. You reassess the data and now think there's only a 40% chance ETH hits $4,000 — but the market still prices Yes at $0.60.
EV = (0.40 × $0.40) − (0.60 × $0.60)
EV = $0.16 − $0.36
EV = −$0.20 per share
Negative EV. Even if you "feel" like ETH will run, this bet loses money on average. The smart move is to skip it — or take the other side if you have conviction your estimate is right.
This is the discipline that separates profitable prediction traders from everyone else.
The Most Important Variable: Your Probability Estimate
Notice that the formula depends entirely on your probability estimate — not the market's. The market price implies a probability, but it's the crowd's average view. The crowd is often wrong.
When the market prices Yes at $0.60, it's implying roughly 60% probability. If you believe the real probability is 70%, you have an edge of 10 percentage points. That edge, over many trades, generates consistent profit.
This is called finding mispriced probabilities — when the market's implied probability is meaningfully different from your estimated probability. It's the foundation of all intelligent prediction market trading.
How to Form a Probability Estimate
You don't need a PhD in statistics. Here are practical approaches anyone can use:
1. Start with Base Rates
How often has this type of event happened historically? If a sports team wins 65% of home games, that's your starting point for a home game prediction. If a particular coin has broken $X in 8 of the last 12 comparable conditions, that's a base rate of 67%.
2. Adjust for New Information
Base rates are starting points. Update them when you have relevant new data — a key player injury, a surprise earnings report, an unexpected policy announcement, a significant on-chain movement. The more specific your insight, and the less widely known it is, the more valuable it is.
3. Check What Other Markets Imply
Are other exchanges or prediction platforms pricing the same event differently? Discrepancies between platforms often signal opportunity. If one market prices Yes at 55% and another at 65%, someone is wrong — and you can position accordingly.
4. Apply Bayesian Thinking
Start with your base rate. Receive new information. Update your estimate. This process — starting with a prior and revising as evidence arrives — is called Bayesian updating. It's how the sharpest analysts in the world think about probability.
5. Calibrate Over Time
Keep a log of your predictions. Record what probability you assigned and whether the event happened. Over hundreds of predictions, you'll learn whether you're consistently overconfident (you assign 80% to things that happen 60% of the time) or underconfident (you're too cautious). Knowing your calibration biases lets you correct for them.
The Full Formula (With Fees)
In a real trading environment, fees matter. The complete formula is:
Net EV = (P_win × Reward) − (P_lose × Risk) − Fees
On Everything, fees are displayed transparently before you confirm any trade. Always check them. If your expected profit is $0.05 per share but the fee is $0.06, the trade is a loss in expectation — even if your probability estimate is correct.
This is why professional traders compare EV after fees, not before.
Scaling Your Positions
Once you've identified a positive EV trade, the next question is: how much to stake?
A common framework is the Kelly Criterion, which tells you what fraction of your bankroll to bet based on your edge. The formula is:
Kelly % = (P_win × Reward − P_lose × Risk) / Reward
In practice, many traders use a fraction of the full Kelly amount (half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly) to reduce variance and protect their bankroll during losing streaks. The math says bet more when your edge is larger — but practical traders stay conservative to survive long enough for the edge to play out.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Confusing "I think it'll happen" with positive EV
You can believe something will happen and still have negative EV if the market is already pricing it correctly. The question is never just "will it happen?" — it's "is this price wrong?"
Ignoring the other side
If you think the Yes probability is 40% but the market prices it at 60%, don't buy Yes. But consider whether No at $0.40 is a positive EV trade (it often is in this case).
Overtrading
More trades aren't better. More positive EV trades are better. When you don't see a clear edge, the correct position is flat.
Letting outcomes affect your system
A positive EV trade that loses is still a good trade. A negative EV trade that wins is still a bad trade. Judge your decisions by the process, not the outcome. Over time, the process is what determines results.
Putting It All Together: A Decision Framework
Before every prediction market trade, run through this checklist:
What does the market imply? Convert the price to an implied probability (a $0.65 Yes = ~65% implied probability)
What do I estimate? Based on research, base rates, and current information, what do I think the real probability is?
Is there a gap? If your estimate is meaningfully higher or lower than implied, you may have an edge
What's the EV? Run the formula. Is it positive after fees?
How much should I stake? Size based on your edge and risk tolerance — not emotion
Execute — or skip If EV is positive, enter. If not, wait for the next opportunity
This process takes five minutes to run through. Over time, it becomes second nature.
Why This Matters on Everything
Everything's prediction markets cover crypto prices, financial events, and global outcomes — live, with real stakes, and real payouts. The same EV math applies whether you're predicting a Bitcoin price target, the outcome of a major geopolitical event, or the next interest rate decision.
The platform gives you the tools. The formula gives you the edge. And the discipline to apply it consistently is what turns occasional wins into a repeatable strategy.
Start small. Track your predictions. Refine your estimates. And over time, let the math do the work.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the difference between expected profit and expected value?
They're the same concept. Expected value (EV) is the standard term in mathematics and trading. Expected profit is simply the practical version — the average money you expect to gain or lose per trade, taking into account all possible outcomes and their probabilities.
Do I need to be good at math to use this?
No. The formula involves only multiplication and subtraction. Once you've estimated the probability and know the payout, the calculation takes seconds. Over time, experienced traders develop an intuition for EV without running the full formula each time.
What if I don't know the probability?
That's your signal to do more research — or skip the trade. Trading without a probability estimate is speculation. Trading with a well-reasoned estimate is what turns prediction markets into an analytical edge.
How is prediction market trading different from gambling?
In gambling, the house edge is fixed and you cannot outperform it over time. In prediction markets, the "price" is set by other traders — and if you have better information or better analysis than the crowd, you have a genuine, sustainable edge. That's the fundamental difference.
Can I apply this to crypto perps trading too?
Expected value thinking applies to any form of trading. In perps, you estimate directional probability, set your risk/reward, and evaluate whether the trade has positive EV. The math is the same. The assets and markets are different.
What's a reasonable win rate for a positive EV trader?
It depends on the payout structure. In binary prediction markets with even payouts, a 55–60% win rate on well-researched positions is very respectable. In markets with asymmetric payouts, you can be profitable with lower win rates if your winners pay significantly more than your losers cost.
Double Your Profits — Limited Time Offer Until July 20
Part of our Double Rewards promotion — running until July 20.
If there was ever a moment to put your expected value skills to work, this is it.
Everything is running a Double Rewards promotion until July 20. That means every winning prediction market trade earns you 2× the standard rewards — on top of your regular profit.
Think about what that does to your expected value calculation. If a trade already has positive EV, doubling the reward payout only makes it more attractive. This is one of those rare windows where the math gets even better.
Offer valid until July 20
Applies to all prediction market trades on Everything
Stack it with your EV edge for maximum returns
Now's the time. Open Everything, find a mispriced prediction, and let the math do the work.
Ready to start applying expected value thinking to real trades?
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